2021 is set to be quite the pivotal year for US EV sales. 2020 saw 1.9% of all car sales were EV, this is expected to rise 2.5% for 2021 as far more diversified models come on to the market. Global EV sales are predicted to stand at $1.2 Trillion by 2027.
Helping to add pace to this transition in America is the new Biden’s administrations pledge to move America away from the Oil industry. The best way to make this transition is to electrify as much as possible of the US transportation system. Ie: Road transport which makes up 70% of all US oil consumption. Investor confidence and excitement are probably at all time highs right now.
The Covid-19 global pandemic was a major blow to global EV sales, accounting for a -25% fall in sales in Q1 2020 alone.
Battery technology is ever improving and will improve at least 6X fold by 2030 alone. Longer lasting batteries with better ranges and a widespread charging infrastructure are critical to the success and continued growth of this sector.
Dubai – UAE has just announced by 2030 it plans to have 4,000 autonomous self driving Taxi vehicles. Dubai seeks to have 20% of all road traffic operating self driving electric vehicles. GM’s Cruise has just secured an 8 year contract. The very concept of “Robo-taxis” to many seems far fetched and decades into the future. When in-fact, the reality is right here staring us in the face.
However, there is one key risk to EV technology, or more importantly, the charging hardware for those EV’s. And that is the real emerging risk of hacking both the public and private charging networks and home chargers. This risk is serious and real the industry is already working to solve this threat before any serious impacts take place. Hackers could have the ability to simultaneously bring down thousands of chargers at once, possibly millions. On a personal level if your home charger hardware was hacked it is linked to your home network that stores large quantities of personal data. Leaving security breaches and owners of EV’s vulnerable to such attacks. As Governments continue to invest billions of dollars and euros into this technology it is vital they keep it safe from cyber security risks as soon as these vulnerabilities emerge. Mass adoption is now underway, and can not afford to be undermined.
Battery metals –
Lithium, Manganese and Cobalt are our main areas of interest with regards to Battery metals. Manganese remains an incredibly strategic material. Widely used in EV battery production process along with countless renewable energy projects, including Solar panels. It remains a cheaper & more effective alternative to Cobalt. With increased EV demand & a drive into further renewable/clean energy we believe Manganese market will see strong demand & growth.
Li – Lithium, as prices came close to doubling in Q1 of 2021 largely due to increased appetite for EV’s, this sector is extremely bullish. Supply is a key issue with regards to Li. The USA desperately needs to secure it’s own supply of Li to reduce exposure & reliance on China for it’s ever growing Li demands.
Global semiconductor shortage is most definitely a near term risk. Semiconductor shortage is a problematic result of the global pandemic where manufacturing processes were heavily disrupted. Add to this an increased demand for EV’s and many other devices requiring semiconductors where demand has soared due to more people being at home. The global demand for Lithium is also another interesting area for consistent growth in the EV sector.
EV’s open the door to so many investment opportunities, not just to companies producing EV’s like Tesla and NIO and many many others, but to the software and entertainment development for these vehicles. Which tends to leave non EV cars behind. Camera and sensor technology that assists the automation, semiconductors and the A.I. Along with the 5G companies making much of the integration of such tech possible.
We do remain bullish TESLA, whilst they do have ever growing emerging competition, they remain vastly superior in terms of the A.I, the self driving software is years ahead. Not to mention their autonomous vehicle network. They’re not just well established in the EV market, TESLA is many other things such as an emerging Energy company, A.I and EV’s.
Next we have major players such as FedEx and Amazon purchasing large quantities of EV delivery trucks. Amazon recently announced buying 100,000 EV vehicles, UPS 10,000, FedEx pledged 100% EV by 2040. President Biden’s talk of converting every US Government vehicle in the fleet to EV could consist of over 600,000 vehicles. These are transformational decisions.
Competition will continue to grow in this sector as every major manufacturer realises the sheer size of this potential market is going to be tremendous. As more and more countries pledge to go carbon neutral by 2050 and sooner, and with many countries calling for outright ban’s on new car sales of petrol and diesel vehicles this market’s potential has a long way to go and grow.
